I don't think that Threads in its current form will succeed because it doesn't offer anything interesting. It's just a Twitter clone with less features and no web app. I can see it finding success if they can integrate it with Instagram and Facebook or add some new features that make it stand out, but right now Threads is boring. I checked it once or twice, but have no interest in checking it out again.
Personally I think it's really stupid that they didn't release a web app. I don't understand why they'd stall their momentum by not having a web application. Personally I mostly consume Twitter on desktop, and if I write tweets, then 90%+ of the time it will be from desktop - and 100% of the time if I'm writing anything in depth like a Twitter thread. I hate typing on my phone, so I'll never type an essay on my phone.
Of course Threads was just released recently and this is just the MVP. I'm sure they'll add new features and make it more interesting over time. But in its current form, Threads is extremely boring. It's a hard sell for anyone who's already invested a lot of time in finding people to follow on Twitter (perhaps organized into lists) and/or created a Twitter following
If I were in charge of Threads, this is what I'd do:
- Release a web app
- Integrate it with Instagram and Facebook (the details of that I leave to your imagination)
- Make the feed more interesting. I just looked at my feed and it's just boring crap like pictures, lame quotes, and forgettable internet junk food
- Make it easier to migrate from Twitter, maybe offering a feature that allows one to import their Twitter following